Rebecca's Northeast weather and education page

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) PTC #5 to Tropical Depression #5 at the 11:00 pm update. The NHC Cone of Uncertainly has 5 tracking over Hispaniola and Cuba. If it develops into a hurricane, maybe it will survive high mountains of that region. I've been talking about because the MJO was in Phase 2 that we would have to watch the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, I was right about Claudette well in advance of landfall.....maybe I will be right about the Eastern GOM this time too. More tomorrow.

Tropical Outlook Wednesday Invest 95L I-95L is moving through Lesser Antilles and is moving westward to west-northwestward at a quick 20 to 25 miles. it will then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. I95L is very disorganized. This area of showers and thunderstorms is unlikely to develop. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the development odds at 0% concurrently for the 2- and 5-day outlook.... The NHC has upgraded Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone #5. Max sustained winds are 35 mph, central pressure is 1008 mb, moving west / west northwest at 21 mph. PTC #5 is located in the middle of the tropical Atlantic. The conditions are favorable for further development. sea surface temperatures (SST) are around 82F, wind shear is light to moderate at 5-15 knots; due to it being so far south 5 is in a very moist environment. Wind shear could increase slightly, but SST will gradually increase as it approaches the Windward and Leeward Islands. Conditions support the idea of 5 moving into the Lesser Antilles by Friday night. As I said yesterday, 5’s longevity will depend on how developed it becomes. The odds are good that 5 will become tropical storm Elsa by the time it gets to the islands. It is possible that 5 could become the first hurricane of the season, but that isn’t a sure thing. This could become an issue Next week for the eastern Gulf, Florida, the Bahamas, or even East Coast. 5 could be approaching the U.S, later Monday or Tuesday. Subtropical Storm Raoni Raoni, has formed in the South Atlantic. Systems like Raoni, are quite rare in the Southern Atlantic do to the generally cooler SSTs. At last check STS Raoni had max sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 986 mb. Images from the NHC and Tropical Tidbits.

I've added a few more upper air charts to the Surface Analysis and charts page on the Wx4cast site. A question, how many of Y'all use any of the pages of weather data I provide? http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/p/maps-and-charts.html

Winter Weather Advisory is up for the Tug Hill and Eastern Lake Ontario Region. We will see if NWS ... Burlington, Albany, Gray, and Caribou follow suit.

Today is chilly, breezy, but mostly dry as that ocean storm pulls farther away. There is a risk for a few very isolated snow showers, especially closer to the Coast. It’s going to be cloudy today, but southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh could see a bit of Sun before the Sun sets late this afternoon. Tonight, we will have a clipper advance out of Central Canada, this could kick up a few show showers during the late overnight for parts of New York State. Off of Lake Erie and... Lake Ontario, there is going to be a bit of lake effect but accumulations should be light. Tomorrow the Clipper will pull a cold front across the Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic. The front won’t have a lot of moisture to work with, so many of us will stay dry. But it will be cold enough, for perhaps snow showers/flurries across New York State south of I-90, southern New England, into northern Pennsylvania, these areas could see a mix with a coating to an inch or so of snow. While areas north of I-90 have a chance at 2-4 inches, with 3-6 inches across the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, there could be a few spots in the northern mountains that see a bit more than that. After the chance for a few lingering showers starting Thursday, high pressure will build into the region, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are looking mild with seasonal to above average temperatures. Friday a strengthening storm system will be leaving the Plains heading for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The models are split between a stronger and weaker storm scenario. I’m leaning toward the weaker scenario, there are several little areas of competing energy near the storm moving into the Midwest, these should help steal some of the available energy for the storm moving into the Great Lakes, to keep it a bit unorganized. But still it’s going to bring quite a bit of snow to the Upper Great Lakes into Canada, with a decent chance for severe weather across the southern Mississippi Valley into Dixie Alley. Much of Saturday looks to stay dry (at least at this time). But rain showers will be moving in ahead of the cold front Saturday night moving from west to east. There could be a mix across parts of New York State. The cold front will move through on Sunday, bringing rain/snow showers along with windy conditions across the region. As the storm moves into Ontario and northwestern Quebec, cold air is going to filter in on the back side, this is going to cause the lake effect machine to wake up, bringing lake snow to those downwind of the Great Lakes. There is just enough uncertainly and flux, that it’s too early to talk accumulations. For the first half of next week it will be chilly, chance for widespread snow or even some ice, with lake effect closer to the Great Lakes.

We have a weak trough moving through, this is creating a few clouds along the Coast into the Mid Atlantic. But Temperatures will be very mild and well above average for this time of year. High Pressure overhead, will keep mostly sunny skies, dry and mild conditions through the weekend into Tuesday Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will approach and move through. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with cooling us off for the 2nd half of next w...eek. I will post on the drought monitor and Eta later today

December 7th. Pearl Harbor Day. 79 years ago, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. A date which will live in infamy, Our nor’easter is pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. We also have an area of low pressure moving away from the Carolinas, this is causing rain for the Southeast and a bit of snow into the southern Delmarva Peninsula. That area of low pressure in the Atlantic is going to strengthen as it pulls away. Winds are going to kick up as the storm intensif...ies. The low pulling away is going to allow high pressure to approach and take over the short-term weather for the East Coast. Today and tomorrow is going to see temperatures below average. This is the coldest air mass so far this season. Wednesday will see a fast-moving clipper, push a weak cold front through the region. This system is going to be moisture starved. But a few rain showers and some flurries/ snow showers for New York State into North and Central New England and Northern Pennsylvania, little to no accumulation for most of us, but some of the higher elevations could pick up 1-3 inches of snow. Those in the lower elevations could be dealing with a bit of a mix. Starting Wednesday, it will still be chilly along with a west breeze, but the air will start to modify. The milder weather will last Thursday into Saturday. But that frontal system I’ve been talking about will approach the upper Great Lakes, preceded by a warm front for Saturday, followed by a strong cold front will move through bringing rain/snow showers for Sunday into Monday. The air behind this cold front will be the coldest air this season for the East Coast. Later Saturday into Sunday widespread rain moving west to east, is looking likely for our region. Winds will become gusty. Later Sunday into Monday, as the colder air works its way in rain will change over to snow. It’s too early to talk accumulations, but at least a few inches is possible in the higher elevations. Timing is going to have a lot to say about who sees what and how much. As the system pulls away, the colder air moving over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will start up the lake effect machine. The lake effect would start later Sunday and going into the first half of next week. This has the potential to be a decent lake effect event for those downwind of the Great Lakes. But again it’s too early to talk accumulations. The AO and the NAO are negative at this time; So, the next 10-14 days will see this back and forth temperature pattern. This would be in line with my thoughts that I laid out in the winter outlook.

I’ve been asked why no forecast update discussion today. The answer is there is no need. The last discussion I posted covers the next 4-5 days. There is no change to what I posted then. So I see no reason to post the same information. Tropical Write UP Tropical Depression Eta has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, Central pressure of 1004 mb, and is moving slowly through Honduras at 8 mph. ...Continue reading

A quick look at the week ahead. All in all, a fairly quiet week is looking likely. We’re going to see an area of low pressure in the southern stream. This will move over the Southeast and into the Atlantic heading out to sea. This will bring a lot of rain to the Southeast with maybe a bit of snow for the southern Delmarva. While it won’t have a direct impact on the weather in our region; this is going to keep the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic chilly, with a northern fl...ow for the first part of this week. For Tuesday night and Wednesday, a weak, fast-moving clipper system will drop out of Canada bringing a risk for a few rain showers/higher elevation snow showers into the region, there could be a few lingering rain/snow showers for Thursday morning. Much of Thursday and Friday is looking mild. For later in the week, another area of low pressure will develop in the Southwest, during later Thursday into Saturday, this disturbance will develop and move toward the northern Great Lakes. The low is going to shift east which will allow a warm front to move through the region later Friday and Saturday, allowing for milder temperatures. Then on Sunday a cold front will come through cooling us back off. There could be some snow across Pennsylvania, New York State, and northern New England into central New England with this. But the storm is going to be quickly moving north and east across eastern Canada. So right now, I don’t think snow will amount to much. With the colder air moving across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario there could be some lake effect snow downwind of the two Big Lakes. With the weekend cold front, timing is going to be key as to when and what p type we end up with. The setup for Sunday doesn’t look good for the Sunday night meteor shower. But some of us could end up with enough clear skies to view at least some of it. Have a great rest of your Sunday.

Analysis on Tropical Storm Eta: Eta, has sustained winds of 40 mph, central pressure of 999 mb, moving west at 7 mph. I agree with the NHC track forecast that has Eta reemerging into the western Caribbean by Friday. Once it moves back offshore, it should be a tropical depression. I don’t think it’s going to dissipate over Central America. Right now, Eta is tapping into tropical moisture from both the Pacific and the Caribbean. So, Eta’s circulation should remain intact. Th...e SST in the western Caribbean are very warm, 84F to 85F along with deep oceanic heat content. On satellite we can see Eta over Nicaragua, also we can see a large area of convection just east and south of Eta’s location. With the warm water, and that area of convection to tap into, Eta will intensify, perhaps quickly. But we will have a trough that will be approaching, this will increase the shear to a moderate level, and very well could try and inject some dry air into Eta’s core. So how strong Eta becomes is a bit up in the air. The trough is going to pick Eta up, moving toward Cuba. Eta should be at least a tropical storm when it moves across Cuba Friday into Saturday. Sunday into next week is a bit murky. Eta could lose steering influence from the trough, as part of the trough looks to become separated from the jet stream. As a result, Eta could slow down and could try and move west and north toward the trough. But if it doesn’t it could become a bigger issue for the Florida Keys and the Bahamas. How strong Eta becomes and timing is going to be critical as to how Eta tracks. Eta will be in the midst of a forming upper level low in the northern Gulf, how Eta interacts with the front, High pressure sitting east of the Bahamas and a ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and will all play a role in where Eta ends up going. But the North Gulf Coast east of Louisiana to Florida and the Southeast U.S. Need to pay attention to where Eta is going.

Rushford in Allegany County saw 4 inches of snow by Monday morning . Three inches of snow was reported in Olean and Ischua in Cattaraugus County, and in Kennedy in Chautauqua County. I don’t know how much was added to these totals Monday night into Tuesday. At my house here on the Tug Hill I saw 5 inches from Sunday night into Monday, and 12 inches last night into this morning. How much did y'all end up with at your location? How did my forecast workout overall? We have a w...eaken cold front that is dropping southward; but the front will end up dissipating. This will allow high pressure to build in. The high pressure will be centered to our south. We will also have a large area of high pressure out in the Atlantic. Both of these will promote a southwesterly flow, which will pump in warm mild air into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. The pattern will allow for that warm flow to continue through the Weekend into next week. Thursday through Saturday should feature mostly sunny skies So, any snow should be gone by Thursday. The stretch will be our Indian Summer. What meteorological conditions constitute Indian summer? Three key elements to remember here. A) It's a period of abnormally warm weather. B) It occurs in mid to late autumn. C) It occurs after the first frost. The next 5 to 7 days will be dry with well above average temperatures across the region. Major Hurricane Eta, has sustained winds of 140 mph, with a central pressure of 940 mb, moving west at 3 mph. There has been no change to my thoughts in regards to Eta, that I’ve been talking about for the last few days. Next Tuesday and Wednesday we very well might be dealing with tropical moisture from Eta; but it’s too soon to know for sure or how much we will see.

Hurricane Eta made landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua as a strong Category 4 hurricane, near the port of Puerto Cabezas. The hurricane will weaken over the next couple of days. Eta is moving slowly at 4 mph, this means torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days. Then Eta should re-emerge over the western Caribbean. Once back over the very warm Caribbean water, Eta will redevelop.

Some quick analysis on Major Hurricane Eta. Eta has sustained winds of 150 mph with a central pressure of 927 mb; making Eta a strong category 4 hurricane. Satellite imagery shows a small hurricane that is well defined. Eta is sporting a small eye. With very warm SST, low to moderate wind shear, and a moist midlevel layer. There is nothing keeping Eta from reaching Category 5. Winds are 150 mph, which is 7 mph shy of Category 5; but the more important central pressure reading... shows Eta is just 2 mb from reaching Category 5 status, if it isn’t already. This isn’t good news for those who live in Nicaragua; they’re going to see catastrophic damage. As I’ve been saying for the last few days, Eta would be slowing down as it approached Nicaragua. And this has indeed been the case, currently Eta is moving west southwest at 7 mph. Another thing that I’ve been harping about has been about Eta Stalling or looping back out over the western Caribbean. This too is going to come to fruition. A trough will be approaching Eta on Thursday; This will turn Eta to the west northwest, and then north by Friday. The track shown by the NHC has Eta looping back out into the Caribbean. Eta should be back over the Caribbean by Saturday. The storm will still have core circulation. With SST 84F to 86F and shear of 10-15 kt, re-development and re-intensification are virtually a sure thing. Those from Louisiana to the Bahamas have to keep aware of Eta. Goodnight!

The surface chart shows that clipper moving across Canada. This is bringing precipitation and windy conditions across our region. Here is a look at current radar showing the lake bands setting up. These strong west winds of 15-30 mph with gust to 50+ mph, Lake Shore Flood Advisories are up for Lake Erie (Erie and Chautauqua counties) and Lake Ontario (Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Jefferson counties). A Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect through Tuesday morning for the... eastern Adirondacks, the Greens, and northern Berkshires. With a lake snow warning for areas east of Lake Ontario into the Western Adirondacks. The Tug Hill Plateau will its first significant snowfall of the season, due to strong west winds going over the entire west to east surface of Lake Ontario. The long fetch will bring heavy snow bands with accumulations of 6-14 inches on top of the snow that fell last night and today. Lake Erie will see some snow but the setup doesn’t support much more than 1-3 inches in the higher elevations downwind of the lake. Those outside the bands will see a slushy coating to maybe a couple of inches, even in the valleys. Eta is now a Category 4 hurricane with max sustained winds of 130 mph with a central pressure of 948 mb.

Major Hurricane Eta as of the 1 pm NHC update was a category 3 hurricane with max sustained winds of 120 mph and a central pressure of 957 mb, still headed west at 9 mph. As I said yesterday, Eta was undergoing rapid intensification as of now Eta’s winds have increased by 70 mph over the last 24 hours. At the time I said Eta was likely to become a major hurricane. I’ve been talking about Eta’s environment for quite a few days now, SST’s are 85F to 86F, with water temperatu...res staying above 80F for several hundred feet under the surface; this will allow lots of fuel for Eta to feed on. With light to moderate windshear of 10-15 kt and humidity levels between 80%-90%, Eta will continue to intensify. These favorable conditions will be in place through tomorrow morning when Eta should make a landfall on Nicaragua. But tomorrow morning Eta should be at least a Category 4 hurricane, this will bring a storm surge of 18 feet to the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts, along with between 30-40 inches of rain to that part of Central America. Eta should continue to slow down over the next 18-24 hours. So, flooding will be a big issue for Central America. Satellite shows a well develop hurricane with near perfect structure. The high pressure north of Major Hurricane Eta, is going to keep Eta on this general westward direction. I’ve been talking about the steering currents weakening, so Eta most likely will sit and spin over Honduras for a bit. But the problem is going to be the fact that Eta is going to be really close to those extremely warm waters of the western Caribbean. The high pressure is going to weaken and move out of the region next week. This will open a door to the north. I don’t think Eta is going to completely dissipate over Central America. So, when Eta reemerges over the western Caribbean, which should be in 4-6 days; he could redevelop into a hurricane. IMO once back over the Caribbean Eta will turn north then likely north and east heading toward Cuba, he could track into the eastern north Gulf Coast, or more likely Florida, but the Bahamas are also a possible target down the road. This track would be over warm water so Eta would be intensifying as it move to the north and northeast.

The strong area of low pressure with that strong cold front has moved through. In its wake we’re dealing with strong west northwesterly winds of 15-30 mph, with gust of 40-55 mph. Wind Advisory are in effect for many of us into this evening. The strong winds could lead to isolated to scattered power outages across the region. The cold air moving over the Lower Great Lakes, kicked off the Lake Effect Machine for the first time this season, several inches have fallen downwind ...Continue reading

Tropical Storm Eta has sustained winds at near 65 mph with stronger gusts, central pressure of 992 mb, and is moving west at 15 mph. Eta is undergoing rapid intensification due to the very warm SST and deep oceanic heat, shear is light at 5-10 kt, with ample atmospheric moisture. Eta is the 28th named storm of the this hyper active 2020 hurricane season and ties the record for the number of named storms in a single season set back in 2005. Why the tie when the last-named s...torm in 2005 was Zeta. The reason for the tie has to do to a technicality. Yes 2005 only had 27 named storms. There as an area the NHC listed as a broad area of low pressure so it was never named; but however post-season review of satellite data showed the low had actually achieved subtropical storm status on October 4th. So, the NHC increased the total for the season to 28 after the season ended when it was decided that a storm should have been named but was not. So where is Eta going? How strong will it get? Eta is expected to make landfall in Nicaragua early Tuesday, as a category 1 hurricane. On satellite we can see Eta is developing a core and is going to continue to intensify during the overnight, under the current conditions I don’t see much getting in the way of Eta achieving at least category 2, and very will could become a major hurricane. The NHC is using the GFS and EURO projections about Eta eventually turning a bit Southwest and then moving into Central America, while this is still likely. It could end up not being the case. We’ve seen the models make fumble after fumble this season, saying a storm was going to hit Florida or the Alabama, but instead end up hitting Louisiana. So clearly, we can’t trust the models in this case. The stronger Eta becomes the more it's going to try and go north. The steering currents are going to weaken, so Eta will at least slow down; but it could end up stalling we’ve seen several tropical disturbances stall this season. If it stalls it could end up moving north. We could end up seeing a piece of energy form north of Eta then move into the Gulf (The GFS has been playing around with this idea). In the past we’ve seen many tropical systems die or greatly weaken over South America / Central America, only to see something survive and make it back into the Gulf. The high pressure that is to Eta’s north won’t stay there forever. If Eta stalls or really slow down it could give that high-pressure time to get out of the way. Then one of the fronts that have been continually digging down into the Gulf could pick Eta up and move it toward the northern Gulf Coast. So clearly everyone from Texas to Florida has to stay aware of what Eta is doing.

We have a Clipper with a strong cold front approaching. Here is a look at radar showing the precipitation moving into western New York State and New England. Winds will switch from southernly to westerly. Today will become very windy with the front, winds between 15 and 30 mph with gust of over 40mph will be possible. Behind the front, temperatures will be falling for the rest of the day. Another disturbance will move through Monday night into Tuesday. I won't be surprised to... see wind advisories issued. The cold air moving over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is going to crank up the lake effect snow machine, tonight into Tuesday morning. Bands will set up East and Southeast of both lakes. East of Lake Erie 3-6 inches, with the area around the Boston Hills and Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties seeing 6-12 inches. The hill towns south of Syracuse and the Mohawk Valley will end up with 3-6 inches with some spots approaching 12 inches. This looks to bring a general 3-6 inches with parts of the central and northern Tug Hill seeing over a foot of snow. The western Adirondacks could end up with 6-12 inches. Places like Rochester most likely will see 2-4 inches. The rest of the Adirondacks a general 3-6 inches is likely. The lower elevation of much of New York State and North and Central New England will end up seeing snow mix in with the rain with a coating to 3 inches possible. Parts of the Greens, Whites into Maine look to see a general 4-10 inches of snow. The rest of the region will see a widespread rain with snow mixing in. moderate to heavy rain will be possible at times. Rainfall totals look to be generally 0.5 to around an inch. The twin tiers of New York State and Pennsylvania will see mostly rain with snow mixing in a dusting to an inch of snow will be possible, with parts of the Catskills and Pocono Mountains seeing higher amounts. Wednesday into the weekend will see dry weather and a warming trend with temperatures for Thursday and Friday ending up well above average.

Say hello to Tropical Storm ETA. ETA is in the Central Caribbean, max sustained winds are 40 mph, central pressure is 1005 mb, moving west at 15 mph.

Tropical Depression 29 has formed. Max sustained winds are 35 mph, central pressure is 1006 mb, moving west at 15 mph. TD29 is well on its way to become most likely Hurricane Eta early next week. Once 29 becomes Eta, this 2020 season will be tied for named storms with the over-active year of 2005. 29 will continue to move toward the western Caribbean where it could move into Central America or stall off the coast. For the reasons I’ve been mentioning, I think the latter of t...he two more likely. But we will see. For tonight and tomorrow, I will be celebrating Samhain, I will find time to fly my broom. But I wanted to wish everyone of y’all a Happy Halloween and safe trick or treating..

Meteorological Term/school, Friday. A brief history of naming hurricanes. If you've ever wondered how tropical systems get their names you are not alone. ...Continue reading