Rebecca's Northeast weather and education page

I've added a few more upper air charts to the Surface Analysis and charts page on the Wx4cast site. A question, how many of Y'all use any of the pages of weather data I provide? http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/p/maps-and-charts.html

Winter Weather Advisory is up for the Tug Hill and Eastern Lake Ontario Region. We will see if NWS ... Burlington, Albany, Gray, and Caribou follow suit.

Today is chilly, breezy, but mostly dry as that ocean storm pulls farther away. There is a risk for a few very isolated snow showers, especially closer to the Coast. It’s going to be cloudy today, but southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh could see a bit of Sun before the Sun sets late this afternoon. Tonight, we will have a clipper advance out of Central Canada, this could kick up a few show showers during the late overnight for parts of New York State. Off of Lake Erie and... Lake Ontario, there is going to be a bit of lake effect but accumulations should be light. Tomorrow the Clipper will pull a cold front across the Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic. The front won’t have a lot of moisture to work with, so many of us will stay dry. But it will be cold enough, for perhaps snow showers/flurries across New York State south of I-90, southern New England, into northern Pennsylvania, these areas could see a mix with a coating to an inch or so of snow. While areas north of I-90 have a chance at 2-4 inches, with 3-6 inches across the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, Greens and Whites, there could be a few spots in the northern mountains that see a bit more than that. After the chance for a few lingering showers starting Thursday, high pressure will build into the region, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are looking mild with seasonal to above average temperatures. Friday a strengthening storm system will be leaving the Plains heading for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The models are split between a stronger and weaker storm scenario. I’m leaning toward the weaker scenario, there are several little areas of competing energy near the storm moving into the Midwest, these should help steal some of the available energy for the storm moving into the Great Lakes, to keep it a bit unorganized. But still it’s going to bring quite a bit of snow to the Upper Great Lakes into Canada, with a decent chance for severe weather across the southern Mississippi Valley into Dixie Alley. Much of Saturday looks to stay dry (at least at this time). But rain showers will be moving in ahead of the cold front Saturday night moving from west to east. There could be a mix across parts of New York State. The cold front will move through on Sunday, bringing rain/snow showers along with windy conditions across the region. As the storm moves into Ontario and northwestern Quebec, cold air is going to filter in on the back side, this is going to cause the lake effect machine to wake up, bringing lake snow to those downwind of the Great Lakes. There is just enough uncertainly and flux, that it’s too early to talk accumulations. For the first half of next week it will be chilly, chance for widespread snow or even some ice, with lake effect closer to the Great Lakes.

December 7th. Pearl Harbor Day. 79 years ago, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. A date which will live in infamy, Our nor’easter is pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. We also have an area of low pressure moving away from the Carolinas, this is causing rain for the Southeast and a bit of snow into the southern Delmarva Peninsula. That area of low pressure in the Atlantic is going to strengthen as it pulls away. Winds are going to kick up as the storm intensif...ies. The low pulling away is going to allow high pressure to approach and take over the short-term weather for the East Coast. Today and tomorrow is going to see temperatures below average. This is the coldest air mass so far this season. Wednesday will see a fast-moving clipper, push a weak cold front through the region. This system is going to be moisture starved. But a few rain showers and some flurries/ snow showers for New York State into North and Central New England and Northern Pennsylvania, little to no accumulation for most of us, but some of the higher elevations could pick up 1-3 inches of snow. Those in the lower elevations could be dealing with a bit of a mix. Starting Wednesday, it will still be chilly along with a west breeze, but the air will start to modify. The milder weather will last Thursday into Saturday. But that frontal system I’ve been talking about will approach the upper Great Lakes, preceded by a warm front for Saturday, followed by a strong cold front will move through bringing rain/snow showers for Sunday into Monday. The air behind this cold front will be the coldest air this season for the East Coast. Later Saturday into Sunday widespread rain moving west to east, is looking likely for our region. Winds will become gusty. Later Sunday into Monday, as the colder air works its way in rain will change over to snow. It’s too early to talk accumulations, but at least a few inches is possible in the higher elevations. Timing is going to have a lot to say about who sees what and how much. As the system pulls away, the colder air moving over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will start up the lake effect machine. The lake effect would start later Sunday and going into the first half of next week. This has the potential to be a decent lake effect event for those downwind of the Great Lakes. But again it’s too early to talk accumulations. The AO and the NAO are negative at this time; So, the next 10-14 days will see this back and forth temperature pattern. This would be in line with my thoughts that I laid out in the winter outlook.

A quick look at the week ahead. All in all, a fairly quiet week is looking likely. We’re going to see an area of low pressure in the southern stream. This will move over the Southeast and into the Atlantic heading out to sea. This will bring a lot of rain to the Southeast with maybe a bit of snow for the southern Delmarva. While it won’t have a direct impact on the weather in our region; this is going to keep the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic chilly, with a northern fl...ow for the first part of this week. For Tuesday night and Wednesday, a weak, fast-moving clipper system will drop out of Canada bringing a risk for a few rain showers/higher elevation snow showers into the region, there could be a few lingering rain/snow showers for Thursday morning. Much of Thursday and Friday is looking mild. For later in the week, another area of low pressure will develop in the Southwest, during later Thursday into Saturday, this disturbance will develop and move toward the northern Great Lakes. The low is going to shift east which will allow a warm front to move through the region later Friday and Saturday, allowing for milder temperatures. Then on Sunday a cold front will come through cooling us back off. There could be some snow across Pennsylvania, New York State, and northern New England into central New England with this. But the storm is going to be quickly moving north and east across eastern Canada. So right now, I don’t think snow will amount to much. With the colder air moving across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario there could be some lake effect snow downwind of the two Big Lakes. With the weekend cold front, timing is going to be key as to when and what p type we end up with. The setup for Sunday doesn’t look good for the Sunday night meteor shower. But some of us could end up with enough clear skies to view at least some of it. Have a great rest of your Sunday.